Working paper

Global Automation Atlas

Prashant Garg Prashant Garg recently completed his PhD in Economics at Imperial College London. His research covers science, innovation, production, and media using machine learning, causal inference, and network science. He joins Bocconi University as a Postdoctoral Researcher in September 2026. Tommaso Crosta Tommaso Crosta is a PhD candidate in Economics at Bocconi University. His research sits at the intersection of development and labour economics, with additional interests in Bayesian statistics applied to microeconomics and meta-analysis. Jasmin Baier Jasmin Baier is a doctoral candidate in Behavioral Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. Her research sits at the intersection of behavioral and development economics, focusing on skills, AI and labor markets, and human-AI interaction. (2026)

Abstract

Automation affects the labour content of work differently across different contexts. Yet, most existing exposure measures assign fixed scores to tasks or occupations, limiting comparisons of automation exposure across countries. We develop a task-based and country-specific approach to classify automation exposure across the world to disentangle labor-substituting from labor-augmenting automation, the relevant technology channel, and the material role of AI. Our measure spans 124 countries, generating an atlas of 2.33 million task-country labels for economies covering 99% of world population and GDP. We present five descriptive results. First, exposure is highly uneven, ranging from 3.3% of tasks in South Sudan to 61.6% in China, and rises strongly with income, although substantial variation remains within income groups. Second, across countries, exposed tasks are skewed towards substitution rather than augmentation, but low-income countries are disproportionately exposed to substitution, whereas middle-income countries are more heterogeneous. Third, less technologically advanced forms of automation account for more than half of exposed tasks in low-income countries but about one quarter in high-income countries; while other more complex channels generally rise with income levels. Fourth, AI tends to be less prevalent in simpler channels of automation, but also more prevalent in labour-substituting margins in lower income settings and to augment labour in higher income settings. Fifth, we find that females seem to be disproportionately more exposed to labour-substituting automation than males. Our methodology provides a basis for comparing automation exposure across development stages, linking it with cross-country data and allowing us to treat exposure levels, labour margins, technological channels and AI involvement as separate dimensions.

Main results

Exposure levels, labour margins, technology channels, AI role, country correlates, and gender-weighted extensions.

Figure 1

Cross-country patterns in task exposure

Automation exposure rises with income, but countries at similar income levels still differ substantially.

Interpretation The same task can receive different exposure labels across countries, so cross-country differences reflect both task composition and country-specific conditions.

Figure 2

Country-level task pathways

Development changes both how much work is exposed and whether exposed work is substitution-only, augmentation-only, or both.

Interpretation Labour margins classify how automation changes the worker's role inside exposed tasks. They are task-level judgments, not estimates of employment effects.

Figure 3

Automation channels and AI materiality

Lower-income exposure is concentrated in rule-based workflow automation. Higher-income exposure spreads across physical, planning, information, and inference channels.

Interpretation The channel mix suggests that automation is shaped by complementary infrastructure, capital, and organisational capacity.

Figure 4

AI materiality, AI function mix, and labour-margin composition

AI-material exposure rises with income and is often attached to shared or augmenting worker roles.

Interpretation AI exposure is not only a replacement margin. In many exposed tasks, AI changes the worker's role inside the task.

Figure 5

Country-level predictors of the cross-country task gradient

Digital connectivity, human capital, governance, and income account for much of the cross-country exposure gradient.

Interpretation Country-level exposure tracks a broader capability environment. Within exposed tasks, the substitution and augmentation shares are less strongly predicted.

Figure B.13

Female-male exposure gaps by labour margin

Occupation- and industry-weighted female-minus-male contributions by country and income group.

Interpretation Gender incidence is sensitive to the labour-market layer used for aggregation, especially for augmentation-only exposure.